【在线视频】
疫情蔓延趋势不减，全球经济短期内受到负面影响已不可避免。但在经济动荡的当下，却是几家欢喜几家愁，一些产业似乎迸发出了新的活力！也许我们可以走出沮丧？全球经济系统到底有怎样的生命力？疫情危机下又蕴藏着怎样的创新动力？全球化智库(CCG)联合凤凰卫视推出抗疫特别系列节目，多维度视角解读疫情下的政治经济文化。
文字实录 | 全球经济系统的生命力
莫天安(Andy Mok)
全球化智库高级研究员
CGTN特约时事评论员、前沃顿商学院北京校友会主席
凤凰卫视主持人朱梓橦：疫情还在蔓延，全球经济短期内受到负面影响已是不可避免。然而从长期来看，或许我们并不需要那么沮丧，就像我们今天请来的全球化智库高级研究员Andy Mok所说，全球经济系统有其自身的调节性，即便面对不可避免的灾难，也会迸发出独特的生命力。we see hotels, airlines, restaurants are closing down. How do you think this is going to impact the global economy in the long term? How can we try and reduce the negative impact on the global economy?（我们看到酒店、航空公司和餐馆都在关闭。您认为这将对全球经济产生怎样的长期影响?我们如何努力减少对全球经济的负面影响?）全球化智库高级研究员Andy Mok(莫天安)：if we think about the global economy, like the human body ,that airlines, you know all of these transport systems when they were talking about the movement of people or the movement of goods is the circulatory system. So once that stops, I think the impact will be very very negative. So in the short term, I think we’re still discovering how bad it’s going to be. In the long run, though, I think the global system is incredibly resilient and that adaptations will be made. This is a driver of innovation as well. So what do we look at? The boom and mobile a video conferencing.（如果我们考虑全球经济，就像人类的身体，航线和其它的这些运输系统，我们讨论的这些人员或货物移动都是一个循环的系统。因此，一旦停止，我认为其影响将非常负面。在短期内，我们还在观察情况究竟会变得有多糟糕。不过，从长远来看，我认为全球体系具有令人难以置信的弹性，而且会做出调整，这也是创新的驱动力。我们看到什么呢？视频会议的繁荣。）It’s like we’re doing now. Right? Though there will be of course sectors that benefit. But I think also as new procedure rules and measures are taken that the forces of globalization or at the root economic and there’s too much to be gained from a globalized system. Some countries could opt out. I think the system itself is resilient and will read it out. But we still have to get through this short term pain.（就像我们现在做的一样。有一些行业受益，但我也认为，随着新程序和措施的采取，全球化的力量或根本的经济力量会从全球的体系中获得很多。但是我们仍然必须克服这种短期痛苦。And this reminds me of what jack ma said about the growing alibaba in the early days. He said, today is bad, tomorrow will be worse, the day after will be even worse. But the day after that would be beautiful. And I think that we’ll see something similar. Um, with this pandemic and its impact on the global economy.（这让我想起了马云早年说过的关于阿里巴巴成长的话。他说：“今天很残酷,明天会更残酷,后天会更差，但之后的日子会很美好。”我想这次的疫情及其对全球经济的影响亦是如此。）主持人：Now you keep a close eye on technology and innovation. How do you think this pandemic is going to affect people’s everyday life going forward?（您一直密切关注技术和创新，您认为这场疫情将如何影响人们未来的日常生活?）Andy Mok：certainly just like anyone that’s lived through any sort of major crisis, whether it was the stock market crash of 29 and the following depression 911, that these really shape a generation’s perceptions, habits, attitudes.This is where China has done an incredible job.（当然，就像任何经历过重大危机的人一样，无论是1929年的股市大崩盘还是911之后的大萧条，这些都塑造了一代人的观念、习惯和态度。我觉得这也是中国做得非常好的地方。）What I was impressed by was the level of detailed paid to making sure that this was a well managed process. And a lot of that is related to technology. So there are apps and you have to scan, et cetera. I think that this use of technology for contact tracing are other ways of quickly identifying any kind of outbreak living. South Korea has been a leader in this area as well. So I think we will see these kinds of systemic changes that will be less visible, but perhaps just as important.(令我印象深刻的是,为确保流程顺利的那些细节，其中很多都与技术有关。有一些应用程序，您必须扫描等等，这种在接触者跟踪的技术应用，和其他很多快速识别疫情出现的方法。韩国在这方面也一直处于领先地位。我们将会看到这类系统性变化，将会不那么明显，但可能同样重要。主持人：What kind of businesses do you think face the biggest Challenge and what kind of businesses do you think will survive and perhaps do well because of this pandemic?（您认为什么样的企业会面临最大的挑战?另外，您认为什么样的企业会生存下来或者因为疫情可能表现良好？）Andy Mok：Right now, the businesses that have been hit the hardest are the ones that directly depend on moving people. airlines, of course, I think have been shut down. I saw that. I think that for instance, US air traffic is down more than 90%. And the hotel industry in general has been very hard hit as well. So I think anything that is reliant on travel has suffered greatly.(目前，受打击最严重的是那些直接依赖流动人口的企业，航空公司的许多航线已经关闭。例如，美国的航空运输量下降了90％以上。那里的酒店也当然受到很大打击，整个酒店业遭受了很大的打击。因此，我认为所有依赖旅行的行业都遭受了巨大的损失。Any of these businesses that rely on people moving around, whether that’s internationally or across cities, munich within a city have been hurt very badly. The winners so far course have been anything online. the vedio conferencing platforms, I think in China, e-commerce, the take away of food delivery places have done well. But that brings its own challenges.（任何这些依赖人员流动的企业，无论是在国际间还是城市间的甚至是城市内的，都遭受了非常严重的损失。目前为止，赢家当然是所有线上的行业，比如视频会议平台。我想在中国，电子商务、外卖送餐的收效很好。但这也带来了自身的挑战。）Because when you think about all of the people going online that results in network depredation, it might even make systems crash. So it presents operational problems. So that doesn’t mean that this is entirely a positive. But//Now clearly the companies that are in the ppE, the personal protection equipment business. You’d have seen perhaps the opportunity for a kind of windfall profits. Again, if their supply chains are able to be maintained, if they’re able to produce, there is an enormous market.（当你想到所有人上网会导致网络破坏，它甚至可能使系统崩溃，这就出现了操作问题。所以，这并不意味着完全都是积极的，现在明显的是从事个人防护装备的公司会具有获得暴利的机会，如果他们的供应链能够维持，如果他们能够生产，就会有巨大的市场。）I’ve worked in venture capital and private equity and work with startups. Some of the most successful startups were founded in the most challenging times. So I think that from a longer term cyclical perspective, we ought to see some game changing, world class companies come out of this crisis.（我曾在风险投资和私募股权公司工作过，也与创业公司合作过。一些最成功的创业公司是在最具挑战性的时期创立的。所以我认为，从长期的周期性的角度来看，我们应该会看到一些游戏规则的改变，世界一流的公司走出这场危机。）
《寰宇同舟-全球战疫观察》(20集)
播出日期：
3月23日-4月17日
播出时间：
首播：周一至周五：19:15 – 19:20
重播 (1)：周二至周六：09:40 – 09:45
重播 (2)：周二至周六：13:55 - 14:00
【节目背景】
在新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延背景下，全球化智库（CCG）与凤凰卫视携手策划针对疫情的国际观察节目。节目着眼于人类命运共同体及全球化高度，以真实、理性、务实为基点，通过与国内外知名专家学者面对面访谈或视频连线，深度解读全球新冠肺炎疫情期及恢复期的疫情控制、中外关系、全球合作、贸易政策、公共卫生、全球治理体系改革、应急管理体系完善、污名化等话题，从多维视角探讨疫情对全球发展的影响。
【往期回看】
全球战“疫”观察1 | 我们不是孤岛，全球危机如何“破题”？
全球战“疫”观察2 | 美股熔断背后的真相？
全球战“疫”观察 3 | 美联储救世之路
全球战“疫”观察 4 | 疫情下的中国经济何去何从？
全球战“疫”观察 5 | 疫情下的经济复兴之路？
全球战“疫”观察 6 | 疫情下的线上G20
【视频地址】：http://t.cn/A6ZJMDoq
全球战“疫”观察 7 | 欧洲疫情大流行背后
全球战“疫”观察 8 | 美国疫情风暴
全球战“疫”观察 9 | 疫情下的澳大利亚
全球战“疫”观察10 | 香港经济复苏之路在何方？、
全球战“疫”观察11 | 病毒污名化背后的政治角力
全球战“疫”观察12 | 疫情下的民粹主义暗流
全球战“疫”观察13 | 疫情将中美关系引向何方？
全球战“疫”观察14|如何避免全球经济衰退
文章选自凤凰卫视《寰宇同舟—全球战“疫”观察》栏目，2020年4月9日
