疫情期间全球贸易必然缩减，特殊时期，各国尤其是像智利、瑞士这些对外贸依存度比较高的国家，如何才能寻找自己的经贸支撑，促进多边合作，避免单边主义的滋生呢？全球化智库（CCG）联合凤凰卫视推出抗疫特别系列节目，多维度视角解读疫情下的政治经济文化，周一至周五19:15 – 19:20，凤凰卫视中文台播出。
文字实录 | 单边主义vs多边合作
本期嘉宾
Jorge Heine，CCG高级研究员、智利前驻华大使
Martin Muller, CCG特邀嘉宾、中国瑞士商会会长。
凤凰卫视主持人朱梓橦：疫情期间全球贸易必然缩减，特殊时期，各国尤其是像智利、瑞士这些对外贸依存度比较高的国家，如何才能寻找自己的经贸支撑，促进多边合作，避免单边主义的滋生呢？我们听听智库专家们的分析。
So what is the status of the outbreak in chile right now?
（目前智利的疫情情况如何?）
Jorge：First, we have a relatively high number of cases in chile, second highest in Latin America, over 3000. But the good news is that the fatalities have been quite low, one of the lowest in the region. The government has been very proactive. They have been tracing people that are ill, they are isolating them. And let us keep our fingers crossed.
（智利的确诊病例数量相对较高，在拉丁美洲排名第二，超过了3000例。但幸运的是，我们的死亡率非常低，是地区拉丁美洲死亡人数最少的地区之一。政府非常的积极主动，他们一直在追踪确诊病例，并将他们隔离。让我们祈祷吧！）
主持人：As we can see, the trade volume between China and chile in recent years have been going up. How do you think the pandemics is going to affect the status quo?
（我们可以看到，近年来中智贸易额呈上升趋势。您认为这次大流行将如何影响现状?）
Jorge：And for quite sometime now for 10 years now, China has been the number one trading partner of chile. Now with everything that has been happening, obviously that will be affected. The price of copper has come down. Chile is the main produce and exporter of copper. China is the number one importer of consumer of copper.
（过去十年来，中国一直是智利的第一大贸易伙伴。现在所发生的一切，显然会对此产生影响。比如铜的价格下降了，而智利是世界主要的铜产地和铜出口国，中国则是全球最大的铜进口国。）
And I think what we need to do, it seems to me, is to work on looking for ways more value can be added to what chile exports to China. One of the things I push for when I was at the embassy in beijing was to expand chile’s refining capacity. China has some comparative advantages there. Some of the biggest copper refining plants are in China. China has some very up to date cutting edge technology in that regard. That is something we could work on.
（我认为，我们需要做的是，努力寻找可以为智利出口到中国的产品增加更多价值的方法。我在驻华使馆工作时推动的一件事就是提高智利的精炼铜产能。中国在这方面相对更有优势，一些最大的铜冶炼厂位于中国，中国在这方面有一些最新的前沿技术。这是我们可以努力去做的事情。）
主持人：And we also know that banking, tourism, and insurance of these are the pillar industries for switzerland. How do you think these industries would be affected by the pandemic?
（我们都知道，银行业、旅游业和保险业是瑞士的支柱产业。您认为大流行将如何影响这些行业?）
Martin：Normally we have winter season with skiing and thorns off. all the Asian from general young Asian tourists didn’t visit switzerland anymore, or only a few. And then when summer vacation comes and the countries are still locked. I think the Outlook is very, very bad for the tourism industry.
（通常情况下，冬季是瑞士的滑雪旺季。但现在亚洲游客不会再在那时候去瑞士了。另外，许多国家可能在暑假来临时仍然处在封闭状态中。因此，我认为旅游业的前景非常糟糕。）
主持人：And then you mentioned banking. I don’t see a huge impact for the banking industry. Um, we have a little bit problems, because swiss franc is super strong compared to other currencies like the euro and US dollar.
（然后您提到了银行业。我们是有一点小问题，但我认为大流行不会对银行业产生巨大的影响，因为瑞士法郎和欧元、美元等其他货币相比非常坚挺。）
Martin：Um, then insurance. It is a very important part of the swiss industry. And there might be also a huge impact, because the reinsurance company, the biggest reinsurance company, might face some huge claims. So let’s see, now at the moment that this is in in full swing in europe. It’s very hard to predict even the next two months. I’ve been in international trade and sales for more than 30 years and never seen this situation before.
（保险业是瑞士产业的重要组成部分，大流行对这个行业产生的影响可能会非常大，因为保险公司，那些最大的再保险公司可能会面临巨大的索赔要求。目前病毒正在欧洲蔓延，即使是未来的两个月也是很难预测的，时间会告诉我们答案。我从事国际贸易已经30多年了，之前还从未见过这样的情况。）
主持人：Jorge, we often hear the term unilateralism in terms of international politics and international trade. How do you think we can improve global coordination and cooperation among different countries?
（Jorge, 在国际政治和国际贸易中，我们经常听到“单边主义”这个词。您认为我们应该如何加强各国之间的协调与合作?）
Jorge：And some people have said that what we have seen in the course of the past few months is sort of the end of globalism, the end of globalization, and of in the return of the nation state. The fact that many countries, including China, have essentially now closed their borders to foreigners and others have banned the export of medical equipment and protective gear would seem to confirm this.
（有些人认为，过去几个月来我们所看到的是全球主义的终结，全球化的倒退以及民族主义的回归。包括中国在内的许多国家都基本上对外国人关闭了边境，一些国家还禁止了医疗设备和防护装备的出口，这些发生的事情似乎都能证明这一点。）
Now, I would say that the failure of the european union to help their own members, you know, the case of Italy, was quite dramatic in that sense.At the same time, I would say there may be a silver lining in the midst of all this. One of the things that has come through is that countries have realized that the notion of just in time inventories that you really didn’t need very many things, because you could always order them from halfway across the world, including medical equipment.
（欧盟非常出乎意料的未能帮助他们成员国之一的意大利。但同时，希望依然存在，比如各国已经意识到 “即时库存”的概念，有时你真的不需要太多东西，因为你可以随时从其他地区订购它们，包括医疗设备。）
if people realize that you cannot fight a a global pandemic with just national solution. I mean that doesn’t make any sense. By definition, a pandemic is global. And unless you look for global tools, unless you look for cooperation, unless you have early detection mechanisms, ways to short circuit the pandemic, this will repeat itself.
（人们需要意识到，仅仅依靠基于单一国家的解决方案是无法对抗全球性大流行的，单一国家的解决方案没有任何意义。根据定义，大流行是全球性的，为了避免它的重演，我们必须寻求全球性的解决方案，寻求合作，建立早期的检测机制，以找到阻止大流行的方法。）
I mean pandemics have been with us since the beginning of time. They now travel much faster than they did in the past, and that means we need to cooperate a lot more.
（大流行病从一开始就伴随着人类历史，现在的传播速度比过去更快，这意味着我们需要更多的合作来应对。）
【往期回看】
全球战“疫”观察1 | 我们不是孤岛，全球危机如何“破题”？
文章选自凤凰卫视《寰宇同舟—全球战“疫”观察》栏目，2020年4月23日
